Lake Arrowhead, CA · Occupancy & ADR
Lake Arrowhead occupancy rate and average daily rate
A well-run Lake Arrowhead short-term rental models at 54% occupancy — about 197 booked nights a year — at an average daily rate of $292. That works out to $158 of revenue per available night.
Occupancy
54%
197 nights booked
Average daily rate
$292
Revenue per available night
$158
ADR × occupancy
Typical stay length
4.2 nights
≈ 47 turnovers a year
Rate versus nights booked
In Lake Arrowhead the two levers move against each other. Modelled outcomes at three pricing positions:
| Pricing position | Nightly rate | Occupancy | Nights | Gross revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price 10% under the market | $263 | 60% | 221 | $58,058 |
| Market pricing | $292 | 54% | 197 | $57,553 |
| Price 10% over the market | $321 | 48% | 173 | $55,677 |
The trade-off uses a modelled price elasticity: a 10% price move shifts occupancy by roughly 12% in the opposite direction. Real elasticity varies by property and by season — treat this as a way to frame the decision, not a forecast.
Occupancy by month
| Month | Modelled occupancy | Modelled ADR |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | 38% | $226 |
| Feb | 38% | $226 |
| Mar | 42% | $245 |
| Apr | 49% | $272 |
| May | 60% | $318 |
| Jun | 72% | $364 |
| Jul | 81% | $400 |
| Aug | 78% | $391 |
| Sep | 60% | $318 |
| Oct | 49% | $272 |
| Nov | 40% | $236 |
| Dec | 40% | $236 |
Compare Lake Arrowhead with nearby markets
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